Final Four Preview and Predictions

by Zak Drapeau

Sportz Nation - 3/30/2026

Photo by Patrick Smith/ Getty Imgaes

UConn vs

Illinois

(Ill -130)

After one of the greatest buzzer beaters in NCAA Tournament history, (And that's saying something...) the Connecticut Huskies are making their 3rd Final Four appearance in 4 years to face Illinois. Illinois is making their first Final Four appearance since 2005 when they lost in the National Championship. They are also in the middle of their 6th straight Tournament run under Head Coach Brad Underwood.

Illinois is opening as a -130 favorite with a 2-point spread. Quickly becoming one of the best defenses in the nation, Illinois hasn't given up more than 60 points since the First Round to Penn when they were already up 30+ points. On offense they've been clicking too, led by Keaton Wagler averaging 17.5 points and 6.5 rebounds.

UConn on the other hand has made it to the Final Four from the East division with grit, teamwork and in a lot more closer games than Illinois. While the Illini have beaten 3 teams with a seed higher than 8, UConn hasn't faced a "lower" team since the First Round and instead has faced powerhouse after powerhouse. Besides how much more battle-tested they are, UConn also has the best player on the court for this game in Tarris Reed Jr., who is averaging 20 and 15 with 5 blocks in the last two games.

I firmly believe this game will come down to the big men. Most of the game should be in UConn's favor but the ending should be close. I like Tarris Reed a lot but Illinois's pairing of Mirkovic and Ivisic should collectively mitigate his advantage on the boards. Will this come down to another last-second shot to send UConn to the next round? Maybe, but if not I actually like Illinois to take this one.

Prediction: Illinois 74-70

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Photo by Kelley L. Cox/ Associated Press

Arizona vs

Michigan

(Mich -122)

The way everyone is hyping up this game it seems a forgone conclusion that the winner of this one will win the National Championship on Monday.

Michigan is the betting favorite right now to be National Champion at +170 with Arizona barely behind at +175. Both teams have cruised to the Final Four so far without a single game being decided by single-digits. Michigan is averaging a 20-point winning margin so far and Arizona is averaging 18.

Arizona's claim to fame thus far is unselfish basketball and controlling the boards. All 5 of their starters are averaging 10 or more points per game and grabbing 44 rebounds as a team.

Michigan has been almost as solid all-around as a team but has been led by their star forward Yaxel Lendeborg who's averaging 21, 7 and 4 and went off against Tennessee in the Elite 8. The Wolverines also took out Alabama when they were one of the hottest teams in the tournament and then dismantled Tennessee to get here.

I think this game is a real pick 'em but if I had to go one way I would take Michigan. I like that they are as good of a team as the Wildcats but are led by Lendeborg who is probably the best player in the world right now.

Prediction: Michigan 82-76

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-Z.D. (@DrapeauZak)