NBA Finals: Spurs vs Knicks Game 5 Preview, Odds, Predictions—All Hope Lost for Spurs?

Photo: Jesse D. Garrabrant-Getty

The New York Knicks are one win away from history.

After taking a commanding 3-1 lead over the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, New York enters Game 5 with a chance to do what no Knicks team has done since 1973: bring a championship back to Madison Square Garden. For a franchise that has spent decades chasing ghosts, enduring several season tanks and patiently waiting for the right group to finally break through, this team now stands on the doorstep of basketball immortality.

And the scariest part? None of this feels like a fluke.

The Knicks have gone 14-1 over their last 15 games, ripping through the postseason with the force, physicality and the confidence of a team that looks every bit like the best in the league. Their defense has evolved. Their stars have delivered. Their role players have done the work. Every time an opponent has tried to push back, New York has answered with another run, another bucket, and another reminder that this team is might be a historically great champion in the making. But the Spurs are not here by accident. San Antonio still has the talent, length and pride to make this series uncomfortable, even with its back against the wall. A 3-1 deficit is brutal, but it is not impossible. If the Spurs can clean up their mistakes, slow the Knicks’ momentum and turn Game 5 into a possession-by-possession battle, there is still a world where this series gets extended. The margin for error is gone, but the opportunity is still there.

So, is Game 5 the night New York finally finishes the job? Or do the Spurs have one more fight left in them? Let’s break down everything we know.

Photo: Austin Steward-AP

Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals will forever be etched in basketball lore as the stage for the greatest collapse—and the most miraculous comeback—in championship history. After the Spurs built a seemingly insurmountable 27-point lead, San Antonio took their foot off the gas, allowing New York to systematically chip away at the deficit little by little and force a chaotic final sequence. In the closing seconds with the Spurs up by one, De'Aaron Fox drove the lane for layup that wasn't needed whatsoever, only to get absolutely smacked at the summit by OG Anunoby. That "Hall of Fame" caliber defensive stop flipped the floor for a fastbreak, culminating in Anunoby tipping in the game-winner at the buzzer to complete the historic turnaround. With that unreal victory, the Knicks secured a commanding 3-1 series lead, leaving a shell-shocked Spurs squad searching for answers heading into a do-or-die Game 5. And sure enough, Knicks fans left the Garden smiling ear to ear.

What makes this comeback even more baffling is how New York pulled it off with such a glaringly top-heavy offensive output. The Knicks had only two players clear the 13-point mark. OG Anunoby played the absolute best basketball of his life, exploding for 33 points while burying 7 triples to keep hope alive. Alongside him, Jalen Brunson was a relentless force, pouring in a game-high 36 points, sinking critical free throws and attacking the paint for incredibly tough layups when the team needed a bucket. Karl-Anthony Towns chipped in 13 points but was severely limited by early foul trouble, leaving the rest of the roster eerily quiet, with no other Knick scoring more than 8 points. The turning point arrived in a brutal third quarter where New York mounted a blistering 13-0 run to cut the deficit to 15, ultimately outscoring San Antonio 26-14 in the frame as the Spurs’ offense completely flatlined.

Instead of feeding the guy who is absurdly tall dominating the interior, San Antonio inexplicably fell in love with the three-point line, hoisting up prayer after prayer and missing practically all of them. Once their early hot streak faded, the lead rapidly disintegrated, made worse by the fact that Brunson was finally getting hot. The collapse also exposed the grueling physical toll of this high-stakes series; a noticeably fatigued Victor Wembanyama logged an exhausting 44 minutes, shooting an uncharacteristic 9-for-25 (36%) from the floor. The Spurs' supporting cast crumbled under the pressure as well, with De'Aaron Fox shooting 1-5 in the fourth quarter and Julian Champagnie tragically regressing back into a benchwarmer, mustering just 5 points on an abysmal 22% from the field. While the young buck Dylan Harper provided a desperately needed spark alongside a solid showing from Devin Vassell, it simply wasn't enough to withstand New York systematically overpowering a gassed, disjointed Spurs squad.

Photo: Amber Dewitt-Getty

Heading back to the Frost Bank Center facing a daunting 3-1 deficit, the San Antonio Spurs have zero margin for error. If the Spurs want to stave off elimination and send this series back to Madison Square Garden, they need a complete tactical reset. Being down 3-1 is daunting, but returning home gives them a critical lifeline. They can't afford to be trigger happy from three if the shots aren't falling. If Karl-Anthony Towns gets into foul trouble again, New York has zero rim protection. Wembanyama needs to demand the ball inside even if guys like Mitchell Robinson and Alvarado harass him. They also need to find pockets of rest for him, ideally syncing his time on the bench with Jalen Brunson's. With De'Aaron Fox struggling to find his rhythm and Julian Champagnie becoming unplayable, San Antonio needs to lean on their youth. Dylan Harper just dropped 21 points, and Stephon Castle was brilliant in Game 3. Let them initiate the offense to take the pressure off Fox. They also can't let Brunson get to his spots again.

For the New York Knicks, the mentality heading into San Antonio for Game 5 is simple: finish the job and don't let a desperate team catch life. While they hold a commanding 3-1 lead, their Game 4 victory was a thrilling tightrope walk that relied heavily on historic performances from just two players. This team offered virtually no depth Wednesday night and still managed a historic comeback. To put this series to rest, New York desperately needs their supporting cast to wake up. Towns will undoubtedly soak up Wembanyama's energy, which makes the team super vulnerable. And if Jalen Brunson can continue his cold blooded orchestration and the Knicks can weather the inevitable emotional storm of a desperate Spurs run, New York has all the tools necessary to silence the Texas crowd and hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy on enemy soil.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Who are you rooting for as the chaos continues? Let us know down below! Are you Team SA or Team NY?

The Game 5 of the NBA Finals kicks off Saturday at 8:30 (EST) 🚨 Can't keep up with the drama? Be sure to stay tuned into Sportz Nation for your sports updates on all things basketball.

Thanks for reading!

-Joel Piton

(@jpiton7)