Predicting the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship
- Matt Hylen
- Mar 4
- 9 min read
Formula One is entering a new era with so much unknown. One may think they have an idea of the pecking order, the favorites, or even who will fall short, yet it won't be until the drivers go racing that things will start to clear. So, what better time to make some predictions that could end horribly wrong than during the first race week of the season?
This was one of the hardest prediction articles I have ever published. With the talent so vast across multiple teams, it is so challenging to make a decision with the pace of the cars still truly unknown. Nevertheless, I based my standings on what we know of the drivers, what my expectation lies with them, and how good I feel they will pair with their car's pace.
So, let's get predicting, shall we?
Valterri Bottas
While I do not think he will have a bad season, I just do not see Valtteri Bottas getting anywhere close to the points with the car Cadillac will have this season. This is to be expected, as Cadillac is starting from scratch, but do not expect anything crazy from Bottas this season.
Sergio Perez
Similar to Bottas, the expectation for Sergio Perez should not be very high at all. Cadillac will likely have the worst car this season (again, to be expected), but I do think Perez is the more talented driver between the two.
Lance Stroll
Considering how badly Aston Martin could struggle to start the year, I have next to no expectation that Lance Stroll will do anything of note this season. It could be months before we see the version of Aston Martin that we expected in 2026, which Stroll should fall victim to due to his overall lack of pace and ability. He may have a weekend or two where he is competing for points, but not to the extent where I can justify him placing any higher than 20th.
Arvid Lindblad
Arvid Lindblad should have a better season than people expect. Though 19th is not the flashiest of results, I expect Lindblad to be around the pace of his teammate Liam Lawson for the majority of the year. It may take a little while, which could hurt him in the long run, but Lindblad could be in for a very decent season. With that said, I do not think VCARB will be extremely competitive this season, which is why I have him coming in at 19th.
Gabriel Bortoleto
Again, another driver whose position will not tell the whole story. I think Gabriel Bortoleto will improve on the performance he showed in his rookie year. He clearly has enough talent to be a top-tier driver one day, but needs to be a bit more consistent when it comes to staying on the track. Audi will likely be up and down in terms of performance this season, which will likely mean Bortoleto being a bit all over the place throughout 2026.
Fernando Alonso
Due to Aston Martin's horrific start to 2026, I just do not see Alonso being able to save the team from what will be a tough 2026. If the team really is four months behind the rest of the grid in terms of car development, I do not expect any sort of pace until at least the summer break. This sort of setback will hinder Alonso's season dramatically, causing him to gain no ground on the drivers ahead of him.
Liam Lawson
Liam Lawson should turn a lot of heads this season. Coming off a very strong end to 2025, I feel that he will build on that momentum and produce a very solid 2026 season. As I said, VCARB's car is not expected to be the most competitive, but Lawson should be able to score a good chunk of points as the year progresses.
Nico Hülkenberg
Nico Hülkenberg, despite his age, has shown no signs of regression and should be in for a great 2026. Considering Audi's expected pace, I do not expect Nico to compete for points every weekend, but do not be surprised if he pulls a rabbit out of a hat every once in a while. He is as solid a driver as they come, while having the ability to outperform slow cars in the past.
Esteban Ocon
Haas should be better as a team this year, but I expect Esteban Ocon to be as advertised. We have yet to see him progress into that #1 driver a midfield team can depend on, which is a big concern for me. I think Ocon will perform at a very similar level to 2025, which is why he comes in at 14th in my prediction.
Franco Colapinto
I know this may be a bit controversial, but Franco Colapinto is my pick for the most improved driver of 2026. Last year was not an accurate reflection of what I believe Colapinto can be in F1; I think we see, now that he's had a full offseason to prepare, a much better version of Colapinto. We have seen his potential during his time at Williams, so with a better car under him, Colapinto should improve.
Alex Albon
The fight for the top of the midfield should be extremely close, but I see Albon getting the short end of the stick by the end. Alex is very prone to hot starts and cold finishes to seasons, which concerns me considering the fact that Williams' pace may be slow to start the year. If he cannot get good results to start the season and still has that fall-off, it is realistic to me to see Albon finishing just outside the top 10.
Oliver Bearman
I think we see a version of Oliver Bearman in 2026 that gives Ferrari a lot to think about by the end of 2026. Bearman is an elite talent with sky-high potential, that much is known. I see a world where Bearman elevates his performance from 2025 and turns a lot of heads in 2026, making a strong case to be heir to Lewis Hamilton's seat at Ferrari. Haas has looked great in testing, which should only help Bearman elevate his pace and produce a very strong season.
Carlos Sainz
If Williams can figure things out in time, Carlos Sainz will execute. People forget how elite of a talent Carlos truly is. He is much more accustomed to his team now, with pace that exceeds any driver fighting in the midfield. With that said, because of the potential struggle the car may face at the start of the year, one midfield-fighting driver should be able to hold the edge over Carlos.
Pierre Gasly
This is finally the year Pierre Gasly gets a worthy car under him, which creates my belief that he will reign best of the rest among the midfield. Gasly has always possessed the pace, but the constant chaos within Alpine has tarnished any chance of him showing it. Now that Alpine seems to have things in order for the first time in years, Gasly should be able to fight for points consistently and finish the season with a very strong result.
Isack Hadjar
I cannot remember a time in F1 where a group of drivers is so difficult to predict. With the drivers at the top four teams so close in talent, truly anything can happen. Yet, with the second Red Bull seat unproven, I have Isack Hadjar coming in at 8th position.
Isack Hadjar is already elite in my eyes. What he accomplished last season was nothing short of extraordinary; he truly has what it takes to compete at the highest level. With that said, it has been years since the second Red Bull driver has succeeded. Who knows, maybe the new regulations will change that. For now, I cannot justify putting Hadjar above the rest until I see him succeed in that second Red Bull seat.
Lando Norris
Is this extremely bold considering Lando Norris is the defending World Champion? Absolutely, but this is a case where a position does not justify performance.
The biggest thing that'll hold Norris back is the inability for the car to cover for his potential mistakes. Since McLaren's car was so good last year, Lando was able to have weekends where he did not perform and have it not be too consequential. He does not have that luxury anymore, which I think will cost him high positioning this year.
Don't get me wrong, I think Lando will have a very strong season, but his ability to make mistakes and get in his head is what is most concerning to me.
Oscar Piastri
For me, Oscar Piastri's positioning is more of me believing in the Ferrari hype than him having a worse year than those above him. Piastri's superpower in this sport is his ability to remain calm under pressure. Take that along with another year of experience under his belt and you have an all-world driver.
With that said, I feel that McLaren will take a backseat to Ferrari and Mercedes in 2026. Sure, Oscar and even Lando for that matter will be in podium fights all year long, but not enough to justify a top-5 finish.
Lewis Hamilton
I may regret this later, but I am choosing to put my faith in the GOAT and predict a bounce-back season for Lewis Hamilton. Ferrari and Mercedes are the favorites to have the fastest car in my eyes, giving Hamilton an advantage before the season even starts. I think the necessary changes within the team should benefit him as well and have put him in a good position to show that he still has gas left in the tank. I truly believe Hamilton will achieve multiple podiums this year, with even maybe a win or two in between.
Kimi Antonelli
This feels a bit risky, but I am banking on Kimi Antonelli to build on the form he showed at the end of 2025 and bring it into 2026. Mercedes have gotten so much hype this offseason, making me believe Antonelli's season will come down to his ability to stay on track under pressure. With the rookie year he had, I think we see a Piastri-type leap from Antonelli in year two, becoming the elite talent people know he can be.
Charles Leclerc
I heavily debated a top-2 finish for Charles Leclerc, but I just do not trust Ferrari enough to get him there. Talent has never been the issue for Leclerc; he has been ready to compete for a championship for years now. Yet, when it comes down to the high-pressure moments when big decisions need to be made, I do not trust Ferrari to make all the right ones. Charles will compete until the very end in my eyes, but come up just short in what could be his best season yet.
Max Verstappen
My logic for having Max Verstappen in the top 2 is simple: if he can finish 2nd by 2 points with arguably the 4th-6th best car last year, he can do it again with the 4th best car this year. Sure, Max has voiced his complaints with the new regulations, but I fully expect him to compete for a race win every single weekend.
There is no one in the world that is a better driver right now than Max Verstappen. Call that claim what you want, but Verstappen has proved year after year that he can compete for championships no matter what car he is driving. Outperforming his car is a regular occurrence for Verstappen, so why should this year be any different.
George Russell
It is George Russell's time.
No one was more consistent, more reliable, and more surprising than George Russell was in 2025. He showed exactly why he deserves to be the face of Mercedes; I think his efforts will finally pay off this season with him becoming a World Champion. He will have the machinery, that much is clear, but I think his ability and focus will take him farther than he ever has before.
However, I do not see this championship fight being easy for George. While some think Mercedes' pace will set them too far apart from the rest, I do not necessarily think that will stand long enough for him not to be put under pressure. Ferrari, Red Bull, and McLaren all have elite staff with proven development ability. All four teams should have at least a driver competing for a race win every single weekend. Nevertheless, Russell will come out on top and win his first-ever Drivers' World Championship.
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