Predicting UFC 250 Freedom at the White House

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 6/12/2026

Graphic Credits to UFC via mmamania.com

In our FN Muhammad v Bonfim, which you can find here:

Zak went 3-3 in picks with 2 method for 5 points.

Matt went 2-4 in picks with 1 methods right for 3 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 99 (68-42)

Matt: 100 (66-44)

All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 6/10

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CIlia Topuria vs

ICJustin Gaethje

Lightweight Championship

(Topuria -600)

Zak Drapeau -

REMEMBER... this fight will be taking place outside, in never-before-seen conditions with things like humidity, precipitation, heat, and other factors being much less controlled than usual.

I realize that Topuria is the favorite and that a knockout looks likely, but -600 is way too steep. There is a world where Gaethje manages the distance and uses his elite leg kicks to hinder Topuria. As far as dirty kickboxing is concerned, Gaethje should have a slight edge and potentially will have one in grappling as well.

Because of the odds, I will 100% be betting on Gaethje in certain parlays. The difference between these two is not as much as people think, and people are discrediting the fact that Topuria hasn't faced a knockout artist like Gaethje since he fought Josh Emmett to a 5-round decision. Gaethje could easily kick Topuria's leg into mush, then crack him with a right hand that slows down the champion and makes the crowd go wild. I believe that happens in the 1st round, and we see a chess match for the next two. Then, I think we see Topuria add another knockout to his resume somewhere in the 3rd.

Prediction: Topuria by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Considering Justin Gaethje is the interim champion, I understand why this fight had to happen, yet Gaethje is the picture-perfect style of opponent that Ilia Topuria wants.

Ilia Topuria is at his best when facing striking-heavy opponents who believe they can be on the front foot. We saw what happened to Charles Oliveira when he tried to initiate on the feet, and it ended just about as badly as it could have for Charles. Plus, with Gaethje's chin dodgy to say the least, this should really be a cakewalk for one of the best fighters in the world in Topuria.

That being said, I am not saying Gaethje can't have a moment or two. He does possess enough power in his kickboxing to clip Topuria; he just has to be smart with it. The issue is, if Gaethje rushes his strikes, he is going to get countered, but if he doesn't rush his strikes, Topuria will just send an avalanche of punches that will end his night.

Topuria is far too good anywhere the fight goes for me to think this fight gets out of round 1. If Gaethje can get rocked by Paddy Pimblett, a punch by Topuria is going to be 100 times worse.

Prediction: Topuria by TKO/KO

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1Ciryl Gane vs

2Alex Pereira

Interim Heavyweight Championship

(Pick 'Em -110)

Zak Drapeau -

Am I the only one who is WAYYYY more excited about this fight than the Main Event? The Heavyweight Championship of the world will include Alex Pereira, who is the UFC's biggest draw, attempting to be the first triple-champion in UFC history.

And to boot... he may be fighting a better kickboxer than him for the first time since Izzy. Well... at least a better heavyweight kickboxer. Gane is used to carrying 250-260 pounds with him when he fights and has been easily one of, if not the best, pure kickboxers in his division since entering in 2019. Now that he faces Alex Pereira, who probably gives Gane the least takedown threat he's ever gone up against, watch for the Frenchman's hands to fly!

I love Alex Pereira, and as always in his fights, if he lands one left hook flush, it's over... but I think Gane finally takes this one. Pereira looks to have put on a lot of weight in a short time, and while I'm usually a fan of fighters who don't have to cut weight, I think the way Pereira did it means he needs to win in the 1st or 2nd round. As long as Gane keeps his distance and fights his game, I think Poatan goes down in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Gane by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I agree with Zak, this fight should be a lot closer than people may believe. Ciryl Gane is a challenge on the feet that Alex Pereira hasn't faced before. With that said, Gane has never faced a guy with more power than Pereira, which will only increase with the move up in weight class.

Both Gane and Pereira are extremely experienced veterans with an impressive resume, win or loss. They are two of the most athletic and powerful men we have in the UFC, so this should be one for the history books.

The key for Gane should be evasiveness. He needs to use his athleticism to throw his jab and get out of the way. He cannot be on the back foot and just stand there; if he does that, Pereira will knock him out. As for Pereira, he cannot get comfortable and let his hands down. He has never felt the punch of a heavyweight before in a match setting, so he cannot afford to let his guard down at any point. He needs to manage his cardio, pin Gane against the cage, and protect that chin that is his biggest question mark going into the fight.

This is so tough to choose, but I think I am going to have to go with the guy who I believe is the better fighter. Pereira is a double champion for a reason, while Gane has tried and failed multiple times. I think it will be extremely competitive, but ultimately will side in favor of a new era of Pereira's reign.

Prediction: Pereira by TKO/KO

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3Sean O'Malley vs

6Aiemann Zahabi

(O'Malley -450)

Zak Drapeau -

UPSET ALERRTTTTTTT

Here we go, I am taking Zahabi to beat Sean O'Malley and I know... I know. Here's the thing, O'Malley is still an elite kickboxer and has a decent reach advantage, but if there are any holes in his game, it is his grappling and takedown defense. Meanwhile... I'm not even going to give it away, but if you don't know who Aiemann Zahabi trains with, just go look it up.

Zahabi normally uses his elite wrestling to manage distance and stay on the feet, but against a guy like O'Malley, I expect him to change his game plan and secure upwards of 5 takedowns this fight. If Yadong took him down 3 times, O'Malley is in for a rough one here.

Prediction: Zahabi by Decision

Matt Hylen -

Upset Alert or a Suga Show Masterclass???

This has a Sean O'Malley masterclass written all over it. He is fighting for the pride of his country, knowing he is probably the best shot the USA has of winning a fight on this card. Not only that, but his length and kickboxing ability is a nightmare scenario for a guy like Aiemann Zahabi in my opinion.

No disrespect to Zahabi, who is a very powerful and technical striker in his own right, but this should be an extremely difficult fight for him to get anything going. O'Malley doesn't lose to strikers and has a much better resume than Zahabi.

I honestly feel like this fight will put O'Malley back into the sphere we were used to seeing him a couple of years ago. After an underwhelming win his last time out, I expect O'Malley to hunt a finish more than he ever has before and bring the Suga Show back into the octagon.

Prediction: O'Malley by TKO/KO

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5Josh Hokit vs

9Derrick Lewis

(Hokit -400)

Zak Drapeau -

I hate to tell you all this, but if Josh Hokit wins this fight, he's in line for a title shot in 2027. After his sensational fight with Curtis Blaydes and his... we'll call it publicized antics at press conferences and on social media, he is a shot of adrenaline the Heavyweight division has needed since Brock Lesnar.

Now... is he a foregone conclusion to beat Lewis? Well, the odds say -400, so he has to be, right? I would challenge that notion, actually, and while I do believe he takes the fight in the 2nd or 3rd, Lewis has the great equalizers on both of his wrists that could win ANY fight he gets into, especially with a guy as inexperienced as Hokit. That being said, Hokit has toughness and some hands of his own that will serve him well. I believe the Blaydes fight has shown him he needs to prioritize his cardio in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and he should do a better job of managing it in this fight. Now we're all just going to have to see what he does after the fight...

Prediction: Hokit by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

I am so excited for this fight. After the atrocious loss Derrick Lewis had last time out, I think we will see a hungrier version of the KO artist, especially after the antics Josh Hokit has pulled. Hokit definitely walks the walk with all the talking he does, but has never felt power like The Black Beast.

Hokit's biggest weakness is his defense. He got clipped multiple times by Curtis Blaydes in his last fight because he simply did not care about protecting himself. If Hokit were smart, he would use his elite wrestling and get this fight done early on the ground, but I do not see that happening. Hokit's ego will be too much, causing him to believe he can strike with Derrick Lewis.

Hokit's antics and ego are going to catch up to him extremely quickly in this fight, in my opinion. So, while I do not think this is the best version of Lewis we will see, it won't have to be. All Lewis needs to do is connect on one punch or one combination and Hokit will fall. If he was rocked multiple times against Blaydes, just imagine what'll happen if Lewis connects on Hokit's chin.

Prediction: Lewis by TKO/KO

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9Mauricio Ruffy vs

13Michael Chandler

(Ruffy -700)

Zak Drapeau -

For so many reasons, this fight should be the most emotional of the night. In what should likely be Michael Chandler's retirement bout, he will undoubtedly look to put on another POTN fight. Chandler will come in and do some jumping splits or something to get us started and probably throw some crazy kicks to start it off, before the inevitable "both guys swinging for the fences toe-to-toe" moment that we always see with him.

Ruffy is a heavy favorite, and he should be. A HUGE size advantage, coupled with him being an underappreciated knockout artist in his division, means Mike Chandler should look like a rock-'em-sock-'em robot at the end of this one. This fight may not even make the 2nd round, but I guarantee it will be exciting the entire time, and we will all be saying, "Thank you, Michael Chandler."

Prediction: Ruffy by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Alright, this is where I start to get a little crazy. I think Michael Chandler is somehow going to win this fight.

Is Mauricio Ruffy the better striker? Yes. Does Ruffy have more power? Absolutely, but the one thing Ruffy does not have is the stakes and meaning of this fight.

Michael Chandler was built for moments like this. The guy raves about how much he loves his country and how fighting for the pride of his country is one of the biggest honors in his life. I simply cannot bet against a man who is going to have more heart and determination than anyone who steps foot into that octagon Sunday night.

So, while it is likely I am wrong, I think the sheer willpower and determination will win Chandler this fight. This fight is going to be EVERYTHING to him, which I truly believe will mean he is going to put it all on the table to get this win.

Prediction: Chandler by Submission

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Bo Nickal vs

Kyle Daukaus

(Nickal -340)

Zak Drapeau -

I'm sorry, I know this is disrespectful, but... Isn't Kyle Daukaus the most random person on this card? It almost seems like Dana wanted the all-American wrestling machine that once tried out to represent America on this exact card and thought... "Who would be an easy win for him?"

But I digress... Plus, Daukaus' wrestling is actually pretty good, and I think we've all seen that Bo Nickal isn't the bona fide stud and contender we all initially thought he might be. Still, this fight should be a dog walk by the end of it, and while Daukaus is tough and experienced enough not to be knocked out quickly, I believe he'll probably be on his back for 8+ minutes.

Prediction: Nickal by Decision

Matt Hylen -

See, I would like this matchup if it were on any other card, but including this on what is supposed to be the greatest event in UFC history was a little questionable to me.

That being said, this will be Bo Nickel's biggest test to date. Kyle Daukaus is a very balanced mixed martial artist who can beat opponents both on the feet and the ground. He is 2-0 in the UFC since coming over from a championship run at CFFC and has finished his opponents both times, which does say something about his style.

On the other hand, Nickel has improved basically in every fight he has had. Sure, the Reinier De Ridder loss was pretty bad, but outside of that he has shown something different in his fight game that he has evolved over time. He is coming off a brutal KO win in his last fight, giving him enough momentum to stand-and-bang if he needs to.

I think this fight will go the distance, but be a grappling dominant performance by Nickel. I think Nickel is going to realize the danger Daukaus presents on the feet and want to take him down as soon as possible.

Prediction: Nickel by Decision

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2Diego Lopes vs

9Steve Garcia

(Lopes -160)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight should be a terrific way to open up the card. Two scrappy dudes with everything on the line in the Featherweight division, including title hopes for both men. Lopes holds a definite wrestling advantage but normally doesn't shoot too often, so I imagine 80-90% of this fight should be straight-up striking.

Steve Garcia will hold a decent size advantage in this one and has 6 KOs in his last 7 fights (the only decision was to Calvin Kattar, whom Max couldn't even knock out). We've seen Lopes walk through man after man in the last 3 years, but he has never faced a fighter quite as good as Garcia. This one is really, really tight for me, but I have to say I'm leaning towards Garcia just for that extra power he possesses and for having one of the best takedown defenses in the division's history.

Prediction: Garcia by Decision

(Side Note: Being the first fight on this card, I think we'll see these two almost be "test dummies" for how the rest of the card plays out. We might see a lot of slipping on the canvas or them gassing out very early on due to the extreme weather. Either way, the result of this fight may be hindered more significantly than the others due to outside forces.)

Matt Hylen -

I agree with Zak, having two fun strikers open up the card is a great way to get this event started. Diego Lopes has had his fair share in the spotlight as of late, but a fight against a guy like Steve Garcia makes all the sense in the world to me. Garcia is coming off a main-event TKO win of his own last time out, presenting a unique challenge that can give Lopes a run for his money.

Ultimately, I think the striking is pretty even across the board between Lopes and Garcia. Yet, Lopes has fought and beaten much higher-level opponents than Garcia, which should help him stay calm inside the octagon. I think Lopes will gas out Garcia and be on the front foot for most of the fight.

Prediction: Lopes by Decision

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