Predicting UFC Fight Night Kape vs Horiguchi

Sportz Nation Staff
Jun 19
9 min read

by Zak Drapeau and Matt Hylen

Sportz Nation - 6/19/2026

In our UFC Freedom Predictions, which you can find here:

Zak went 4-3 in picks with 2 method for 6 points.

Matt went 3-4 in picks with 1 method right for 4 points.

Points To Date:

Zak: 105 (72-45)

Matt: 104 (69-48)

All odds courtesy of Caesar's Sportsbook on 6/18

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2Manel Kape vs

5Kyoji Horguchi

(Kape -155)

Zak Drapeau -

This is a terrific matchup that should easily boost the winner to a Championship match against either Joshua Van or Alexandre Pantoja sometime in 2027. Kape has been running the contenders of this division for almost 5 years, winning 7 of his last 8 fights and is currently on a 3-fight KO streak against Royval, Almabayev, and Silva.

Horiguchi, on the other hand, has been traveling the world and only came back to the UFC less than a year ago. In the last 8 months, he has destroyed both Ulanbekov and Albazi and shown that he's the real deal.

Manel Kape has a very good reach advantage in this fight and, in a way, a style advantage, often featuring a precise counter-striking skill set. Horiguchi has come back into the UFC like a ball of fire with all the momentum in the world, but in his older age, I think he will be too active and get caught with one of Kape's lethal left hands.

Prediction: Kape by TKO

Matt Hylen -

I'm surprised this fight was put in the Apex and not an arena venue, considering this could be one of the fights of the year. Both Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi have been on absolute tears and possess similar skills anywhere the fight goes.

For Kape, he is definitely the more powerful striker, whose pressure is completely overwhelming. His cardio is never an issue in his fights, which serves him well as the fight goes on. He is also a much younger fighter than Horiguchi and is in the prime of his career. He has been putting highly ranked opponents to sleep with absolute ease as of late, which will likely be the case again should he win on Saturday.

As for Horiguchi, he has already beaten and finished Kape before at RIZIN, which should be a huge confidence booster for him. He will have to time it right, but Horiguchi will need to take Kape down if he wants to win this fight. This is a much different and better version of Manel Kape this time around, so Horiguchi needs to utilize his elite grappling if he wants to finish Kape. Kape has always had issues when taken down, making it the likely game plan for Horiguchi, who holds a severe disadvantage in the power department.

This fight could really go either way, but I always lean towards the better grappler in fights like this. Horiguchi's fight IQ is among the best in the sport, so I am sure he knows that grappling is going to win him this fight. So long as he doesn't get caught on the way in, I think Horiguchi will have a field day on the ground against Kape.

Prediction: Horiguchi by Decision

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Ion Cutelaba vs

Navajo Stirling

(Stirling -330)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight is Stirling's last test before he is unleashed to the rest of the ranked Light Heavyweights, along with the new generation entering with him, like Barniewski, Elekana, and Yakhyaev.

This fight with Cutelaba is absolutely nothing to underestimate, but Stirling's propensity for violence and elite boxing is notable. Cutelaba has a good grappling base, which could serve him well to get Stirling away from his game plan, but at some point, this fight should come down to a flurry of strikes that gives Stirling a 10-0 record and takes his career to the next level.

Prediction: Stirling by TKO/KO

Matt Hylen -

Another fun fight on this card, but one that I think should be closer in odds than what it is currently. Navajo Stirling should be the favorite and for good reason, but Ion Cutelaba should not be counted out in this fight.

Starting with Stirling, he is one of the more hyped-up prospects in the light heavyweight division, but has lacked that finishing ability that people were expecting. His power is insane, but to this point, his striking is a bit unpolished for the power to really show. This is a big opportunity for him, considering Cutelaba is a veteran of the sport.

As for Cutelaba, this is likely his final opportunity to get back to the ranked conversation. He has been a gatekeeper for quite some time now, but a win against a prospect like Stirling can break him free of that title and start an upward trajectory. His inconsistency is his biggest flaw, but when he is at the top of his game, there are few that can compete with him.

This fight will firmly depend on how easy or difficult it will be for Cutelaba to get this fight to the ground. Stirling has a massive frame, which gives him an advantage, but has yet to really be challenged in a way that Cutelaba can present. That being said, I think this has Stirling written all over it, finally showcasing the power striking that fans were promised.

Prediction: Stirling by TKO/KO

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12Vinicius Oliveira vs

Andre Fili

(-300)

Zak Drapeau -

This fight should be a good first step for Oliveira, who makes his debut at Featherweight, but it is still a short notice fight for Andre Fili. Fili agreed to step in for the injured Giga Chikadze just two weeks ago and, true to his character, should still give the fans a heck of a fight even if he is a massive underdog.

Oliveira is moving to Featherweight to help with his massive weight cuts, where he should look even healthier and have more energy. This fight should be a war on the feet between two active and creative fighters, with Oliveira probably having an advantage in power, especially when he mixes in his kicks and knees. Fili's massive experience advantage may be nerfed by his short notice camp, especially when the fight gets to the later rounds. I believe the fight is close for the first two rounds, even if Oliveira has a slight advantage, whereas the 3rd round should completely belong to him as he tries to go for a finish.

Prediction: Oliveira by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight is pretty straightforward to me. Sure, Vinicius Oliveira got dominated in his last fight against Mario Bautista, but he won't have to worry about grappling that much in this fight.

Andre Fili is the definition of a win-loss fighter. He is so inconsistent to the point the UFC keeps him around because of how unpredictable he is. Every fight he is in ends up being close, but he doesn't have that finishing ability on the feet or the ground that makes me concerned for Oliveira in this fight. Oliveira's striking is far more advanced and possesses serious power, which should get to Fili rather quickly in this fight.

Prediction: Oliveira by TKO/KO

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13Bea Mesquita vs

Melissa Mullins

(Mesquita -650)

Zak Drapeau -

We are big fans of Bia Mesquita on this page, and her matchup this weekend with Melissa Mullins is seemingly an easy one for one of the best women grapplers in the world. Mullins herself is a common competitor in grappling promotions like ADCC, where she wins some and loses some, which is likely the basis of how this fight came together.

The fact Mesquita took this fight offer is a bit puzzling with her ongoing reputation as a meteoric riser in the division, but it also shows that she's willing to accept whatever fight the UFC puts in front of her, which is the attitude I love... and so does Dana. After Bia finishes her opponent in the 1st or 2nd, I expect a massive leap in the rankings for her next fight.

Prediction: Mesquita by Submission

Matt Hylen -

As Zak said, if you have read our previous articles, you know how high we are on Bia Mesquita. I think she is going to be a champion one day in the UFC; it's just a matter of time.

To keep it simple, Mesquita is a top-3 grappler in Women's MMA. Melissa Mullins is a fine opponent with good offensive striking, so no disrespect to her, but this should be an easy fight for Mesquita to win. Mullins is not great defensively, which Mesquita should take advantage of within the first minute with a takedown.

This should be absolute domination by Mesquita. I am not really sure why she keeps being handed this level of opponent, but this should warrant her at least a top-10, if not top-5, fight next.

Prediction: Mesquita by Submission

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Allan Nascimento vs

Mitch Raposo

(Nascimento -190)

Zak Drapeau -

The current pride of Fall River, Massachusetts, is Mitch Raposo, who gets a much-anticipated shot against a premier flyweight just outside of the top 15 in Nascimento. Nascimento is no walk in the park, though, and is riding a terrific four-fight win streak, including two submissions.

Nascimento comes into this fight as the favorite, mostly due to a grappling advantage, but also has quite a height and reach advantage. Raposo is younger with a bright future, and this matchup is a perfect test for how he has progressed. As a grappler, Nascimento will go for takedowns and pressure early, and if Raposo can withstand the fire, he should come out with a spectacular victory and stake his name for a future ranked fight.

Prediction: Raposo by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This fight should be a bit closer than people think. Mitch Raposo doesn't have any aspect of his game that jumps off the page, but can scrap with pretty much anyone. He isn't afraid to get into a war with his opponent; it is just often he does not come out the other side victorious.

As for Allan Nascimento, he is one of the best submission grapplers in the Flyweight division, in my opinion. He has been on a tear in his last four fights, which should continue against a guy like Raposo.

I'll be rooting for the hometown kid, but I think this is a layup for Nascimento. He is levels above Raposo on the ground, which he should be able to utilize pretty easily.

Prediction: Nascimento by Submission

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8Karol Rosa vs

11Luana Santos

(Pick 'Em)

Zak Drapeau -

The only pick 'em of the card, and it's actually a banger. Luana Santos isn't a betting favorite but has to be a moral favorite as one of the youngest prospects in the UFC, especially in the Bantamweight division. This fight is no walk in the park for the 26-year-old with Rosa, though, as her style is seemingly her kryptonite.

Santos' one blemish so far has been the decision loss to Casey O'Neil almost two years ago, which was essentially a boxing match for 2 of the 3 rounds where Santos got pieced up. Rosa is not always a straight boxer but is very good at the skill when she needs to be, which means if Santos can't get the longtime Bantamweight contender to the ground, anything could happen. For prediction's sake, I believe she'll actually notch 2 takedowns in the fight and attempt much more in a Muay Thai and clinch-filled game plan to mitigate Rosa's boxing. Rosa herself has good wrestling, but if Santos can minimize the distance, I think she'll be successful in smothering her opponent and walk away with a win, even if it does come down to a split.

Prediction: Santos by Decision

Matt Hylen -

This should be a really fun fight between two legitimate contenders in the Women's Bantamweight division. Though Karol Rosa is a decision machine, Luana Santos' style should make this a barnburner throughout.

Santos has no trouble on the feet, but typically will look for takedowns if available. She has won four of her last five, with an impressive resume to boot. I think Santos has a solid chance of roughing Rosa up on the ground for the full three rounds if she can get it there.

With that said, Rosa is no easy opponent. She has very solid Muay Thai abilities, which often help her when opponents try to take her down. Her finishing ability is her biggest weakness, but she knows what she has to do to win fights. If she can keep the distance and find her shots as the fight goes on, it could be a tough day for Santos.

Prediction: Santos by Decision

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